Last‑mile delivery shapes the online shopping experience, influencing conversion rates, repeat purchases and brand perception.

At Tembi, we analysed over 600,000 webshops to understand two aspects of last‑mile competition in 17 European markets, the market share of the top delivery provider and the number of distinct delivery partners each webshop integrates, and how these factors drive innovation and strategy.

Methodology: Tracking integrations not shipments

Rather than estimating parcel volumes, we examined the presence of delivery providers in webshop back‑ends. Every integration represents a commitment by the webshop to offer that carrier at checkout. By counting integrations, we capture:

• Breadth of choice available to consumers

• Carrier prominence within each market

For each country - from Belgium to Slovakia - we identified the top three providers by share of webshop integrations and counted the total number of providers in active use. We excluded providers that have less than 1% market presence.
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These figures show that while national postal services still lead in many markets, no single carrier dominates everywhere, and the number of options ranges from three providers in Iceland to more than twenty in the Netherlands.

Consolidated vs Fragmented markets

We classify markets by the checkout presence held by the leading provider:

1. Highly consolidated (leader > 50%)
   Finland, Hungary, Germany
2. Moderately consolidated (leader 33–50%)
   Latvia, Estonia, Norway, Denmark, Switzerland, Belgium, Bulgaria, Iceland, Slovakia
3. Highly fragmented (leader < 33%)
   Netherlands, Sweden, Italy, Romania

Fragmentation in focus, number of competing providers

Adding the count of distinct delivery partners shows where compeition is the hightst:

Most fragmented markets, such as the Netherlands, Romania and Sweden, offer webshops a broad selection of carriers to tailor delivery options by region, price‑point and service level. In the Netherlands, for instance, there are over twenty distinct last‑mile providers active across the market. By contrast, in Iceland and Bulgaria webshops have fewer providers to choose from, simplifying management but concentrating risk, and less consumer choice. Finland sits between these extremes, with around fourteen partners in use yet Posti being present in 62% of all webshop checkouts.

Analysis, geography, national postal providers and innovation

Geography plays a crucial role in shaping last‑mile dynamics. In countries with vast rural areas and archipelagos - most notably Finland and Sweden - webshops need delivery partners that can reliably serve both remote villages and dense urban centres. National posts excel at this: Posti’s 62 percent presence in Finland and PostNord’s 33 percent in Sweden reflect their ability to cover every corner of the country, from Lapland to the Helsinki suburbs, or from the Stockholm archipelago to the far north. This extensive network cements their leadership and makes it challenging for smaller couriers to compete on a truly national scale.

At the same time, urban populations in these markets demand faster and more flexible options. That’s why even highly consolidated markets like Finland still see around fourteen delivery partners in use, and Sweden nearly eighteen. Specialist providers focus on city‑centre same‑day deliveries, parcel locker networks and niche eco‑services, carving out space alongside the national postal incumbent.

By contrast, in highly fragmented markets such as the Netherlands, Italy and Romania, geography is less of a barrier - population density is higher and distances shorter - so webshops routinely offer 18 to 22 different providers to meet varied consumer preferences. National posts such as PostNL and Poste Italiane must innovate continually, rolling out premium services like carbon‑neutral shipping, click‑and‑collect lockers and advanced tracking, and partnering with crowd‑shipping or on‑demand couriers to fill gaps.

In moderately consolidated markets - Denmark, Belgium, Switzerland and the Baltics - the mix reflects mid‑range geography and market size. National posts share the stage with regional specialists (such as GLS and DPD), driving innovation in service differentiation, tech integration and sustainability (electric fleets, bike couriers, offset programmes).

Finally, in smaller or more remote markets like Iceland and Bulgaria, webshops often layer core postal services with a handful (three to five) of local same‑day or on‑demand couriers to ensure coverage. Even here, national posts are expanding parcel‑locker footprints and app‑based tracking to meet rising consumer expectations - while keeping a watchful eye towards rapidly growing new digital-first ventures.

Understanding these overlapping factors - market consolidation, provider fragmentation and geographic realities - allows e‑commerce leaders to tailor last‑mile strategies. In widespread, low‑density regions, deep partnerships with national posts ensure full coverage; in dense, competitive markets, robust multi‑carrier technology and innovative niche services deliver the flexibility consumers expect.

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The real estate sector, particularly in hospitality, is undergoing a significant shift. With growing data availability and the evolution of AI tools, companies can now make faster, more informed, and more strategic decisions. We recently sat down with Jochen Renz to talk about how he and his team are rethinking real estate development by embracing AI-driven insights.
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‍This article is based on a conversation between Michael Bugaj , CMO at Tembi, and Jochen Renz, VP Operations Accor Switzerland & Southern Germany and Managing Director AccorHotels Switzerland.

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The challenge of predicting growth

Jochen begins by highlighting a central challenge in real estate development: identifying areas with future growth potential. "The question was, how can I ensure we define areas in a country with further potential growth than we might see today?" he explains. Traditional methods - macro- and microeconomic research, political and demographic analysis - often look backward, relying on historical data to predict future trends.

However, Jochen was looking for more than that. He wanted forward-thinking tools that could help them predict, not just reflect. This desire for a proactive approach led Jochen and his team to explore AI-powered solutions.

Discovering Tembi

One of the tools Jochen explored is Tembi, a platform that helps identify emerging opportunities in different areas of cities based on continuously updated market data. While not yet rolled out in Switzerland, the tool was originally developed in Denmark and stood out to Jochen as a promising forward-looking platform.

"Tembi allowed us to do predictions in areas based on logistics, different sectors, and growing patterns," Jochen shares. "I compared this with more traditional development tools, and what stood out was its ability to look forward by analyzing data such as employer growth, financial data, and sector movements."

From manual labor to scalable insights

Traditionally, site selection was a heavily manual task involving fragmented data sources. Jochen’s team would combine macroeconomic data with localized insights, looking at street-level factors, emissions, and building potential. External consultants were often brought in to help collect and validate this information. "The consistent approach is not easy to achieve," he admits.

With AI-driven tools like Tembi, however, the potential for change is clear. While still a work in progress, the promise lies in being able to access relevant data for hundreds or even thousands of locations more quickly than before. Jochen notes that with tools like Tembi, it's becoming increasingly feasible to explore broader market patterns and opportunities in a more scalable way.

Replicable patterns across borders

Jochen shared an example from Denmark: a promising opportunity in Odense. “I had never heard of the city before,” he laughs. “But by setting a few filters, we uncovered a significant movement in the city that revealed a growing need for hotels.”

With tools like Tembi, such discoveries become replicable. “You could look for similar movements in Sweden, Poland, or Belgium, just by changing the location input. That’s the power of structured data paired with AI.”

A shift in real estate mindset

The ability to anticipate development opportunities earlier in the cycle will give companies a strategic edge. "If we know an area is developing and we can suggest the right brand early on, we influence the project from the beginning," Jochen explains. "That positions us in a completely different way in the value chain."

Lowering the barrier to smart decisions

Perhaps one of the most powerful applications of AI, Jochen believes, is making complex data more accessible. "Think about someone running a 7-Eleven or Domino's Pizza franchise, they're not developers," he says. "But if AI can give them confidence in a location based on structured data, that opens up huge possibilities."

This democratization of insight, paired with AI’s ability to remove emotional bias from decisions, is transforming how Accor - and potentially the wider industry - approaches site selection.

Looking ahead

As AI continues to evolve, Jochen envisions a future where real estate teams can monitor hundreds of markets at once, identifying trends and acting faster than ever before. “You don’t have to focus on one area anymore, you can analyze 100 areas and synthesize it down to the two best opportunities. That’s game-changing.”

The intersection of human insight and machine intelligence is reshaping real estate development. For Jochen and the team at Accor, tools like Tembi have the potential to become more than just another platform - they could evolve into essential partners in strategic growth.

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As this conversation shows, the integration of AI into real estate decision-making isn't just a technical evolution, it's a shift in mindset. By empowering teams with better tools, clearer data, and broader perspectives, platforms like Tembi can help companies like Accor stay ahead in an increasingly competitive and fast-moving market.

Stay tuned for more stories like this as we continue to explore the intersection of AI and real-world strategy across industries.

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or e-commerce consumers, delivery costs often represent the final hurdle before completing a purchase. Set too high, delivery fees can drive potential buyers away; priced competitively, they can boost conversions and foster customer loyalty. At Tembi, we closely track these shifts, monitoring what webshops across Europe charge consumers for different delivery methods.

We analysed webshop delivery pricing data across nine markets from October 2024 to March 2025, examining variations across three key delivery methods: parcel box, parcel shop, and home delivery.

Over 300.000 webshops are part of this analysis and we've removed the outliers when calculatin average deliver prices (free delivery and delivery of large and/or heavy objects).

Key delivery pricing movements by Method

Parcel Box delivery: Affordable, but volatile

Parcel boxes have become a popular choice due to convenience and lower operational costs. However, pricing varied significantly:

• 🇱🇹 Lithuania saw a notable increase of 23.8%, rising from €3.03 to €3.75, suggesting webshops might be responding to increased local demand or higher operational costs.
• 🇳🇱 Netherlands experienced an 18% price drop, from €7.31 to €5.98, potentially reflecting competitive pressure or improved logistics efficiency.

Parcel Shop delivery: Mixed strategies

Parcel shops offer flexibility for consumers who prefer to pick up orders at convenient locations:

• 🇱🇻 Prices in Latvia decreased by 17.7%, from €2.94 to €2.42, a general trend for deliver prices in the country.
• 🇳🇴 Norway saw a significant decrease of €1.24 per delivery, suggesting potential improvements in parcel shop logistics or fierce webshop competition to retain customers.
• Conversely, webshops in🇧🇪 Belgium slightly increased prices by 5.4%, a modest rise that might reflect increased operational costs or a shift in consumer preference.

Home Delivery: Premium convenience, mixed pricing

Home delivery remains the premium service and is generally priced highest:

• 🇸🇪 Sweden saw a drop by 13%, from €7.91 to €6.88, reflecting aggressive competitive positioning by webshops or improved home-delivery logistics.
• 🇳🇴 Norway and 🇱🇻 Latvia also saw a decrease home delivery prices.
• However, 🇫🇮 Finland bucked this trend, seeing a slight price increase from €12.62 to €12.97, possibly driven by increasing last-mile delivery expenses.

Why delivery price changes matter

These shifts in delivery prices reveal strategic decisions by webshops rather than direct changes in logistics provider pricing. Webshops balance several factors:

• Consumer demand: Price sensitivity and preferred delivery methods vary widely between markets.
• Competition: Price adjustments can help webshops maintain competitiveness against major marketplaces and local rivals.
• Operational costs: Changes might reflect fluctuations in fuel, wages, logistics efficiency, or capacity constraints. Delivery can either increase the margin on each product, or decrease it if delvery cost is lower than the cost to the last-mile provider.

For commercial leaders in e-commerce, understanding these pricing strategies is critical. Lower delivery prices may indicate aggressive market positioning or efficiency gains, while increases might signal tighter operational conditions or reduced competition.

Webshop delivery pricing is a powerful indicator of market conditions and consumer expectations. Regular monitoring of these shifts is essential to stay competitive and agile - regardless if you're a retailer selling directrly or inderictly, or operate a last-mile delivery provider.

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hen we talk about e-commerce opportunity, the conversation often starts, and ends, with the size of a market. How many webshops are there? Which countries have the highest absolute numbers?

At Tembi, we believe that raw totals only tell part of the story. To really understand where e-commerce is thriving, and where it’s just starting to take hold, you need to look at density, digital integration, and market readiness.

We recently analysed data across 20+ European countries, looking not only at total webshop numbers but how they compare to population size and national business ecosystems.

A Look at the Numbers

Some of the results are surprising:

• Iceland has just 1,807 webshops. But with a population of 384,000, that translates to 4.7 webshops per 1,000 people - making it one of the densest e-commerce markets in Europe.
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• Estonia leads the pack with 7.9 webshops per 1,000 inhabitants, signalling a highly digitised economy.
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• The Netherlands has over 119,000 webshops and 6.6 per 1,000 people - combining scale and density.
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• Germany, by contrast, has 134,000 webshops, but a much lower density: 1.6 per 1,000 people.
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Why This Matters

Knowing how many webshops exist per capita or per company tells us more than just the size of the e-commerce sector. It signals how deeply online sales are embedded into the economy.

Here’s what high webshop density suggests:

• Digitally mature SMEs that prioritise online channels from the start
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• Robust delivery infrastructure that supports fulfilment at scale
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• Strong consumer trust and demand for buying online
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• Markets where e-commerce is no longer a trend - it’s the default
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For commercial teams, this is essential context. Are you entering a market where most companies already sell online? Or one where there’s room to help businesses go digital? Are you facing established competitors, or discovering a still-fragmented field?

This kind of intelligence can shape your go-to-market plan, sales motions, and even your product localisation strategy.

Looking Beyond Market Size

In short: don’t just look at the number of webshops. Look at who they serve, how they scale, and how densely they operate within the economy. Because the future of e-commerce isn’t just about growth -it’s about depth, integration, and staying power.

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hen evaluating market opportunities, many look at total size. But total size doesn’t tell you where momentum is building. New webshop creation - and survival - is often a better indicator.

Despite being considered mature digital markets, across Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, 9,200 new webshops were launched in 2024 that are still active today. That’s not total launches, that’s survivors - which gives a better sense of which markets are currently supporting new players.

This challenges conventional wisdom about market saturation and highlights untapped opportunities in the region.

Where is the momentum?  

Sweden leads with the strongest growth, showing a 42% increase in the number of newly launched webshops that remain active compared to the previous year. Close behind is Denmark, with a 39% year-on-year growth. These figures suggest that both markets are currently fertile ground for e-commerce newcomers, despite heightened competition and shifting consumer behaviour.

Finland and Iceland also recorded positive, albeit more modest, developments. Finland saw a 14% increase in surviving new webshops, while Iceland posted 13% growth. These numbers may not be as dramatic as Denmark or Sweden, but they still point to a healthy pace of new market entrants that are finding ways to stay afloat.

Norway, by contrast , is the only market that moved in the opposite direction. Here, the number of newly launched webshops that remained active declined by 2% compared to the previous year. While not a steep drop, it stands out in a region otherwise trending upwards. This downturn was primarily concentrated in one category - Beauty & personal care - which appears to have experienced a wave of closures (more details on this in our previous blog post available here).

The contrast between countries suggests that, even within a shared economic region, local market dynamics and category-specific pressures can lead to different outcomes.

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Simultaneous contraction and expansion

At first glance, it may seem contradictory: high closure rates alongside a surge in new webshop launches. Between August 2024 and February 2025, over 3,300 Danish webshops ceased activity. That’s 11% of the total market, gone in just six months. This might suggest a market in retreat struggling with saturation. But the full picture tells a different story.

In the very same period, 2,645 new webshops were successfully launched and remained operational. These aren’t just test stores or dormant domains. These are active webshops that made it past the initial setup phase and into actual trade.

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Innovation thrives - even in mature markets

One of the more common assumptions about Nordic e-commerce is that the market is saturated. With strong category leaders and high consumer expectations, it can appear that there is little room left for new entrants. However, the consistent entries of still active webshops launched in 2024 challenges that thinking.  

These are not just short-lived experiments or weekend projects. They are businesses that have managed to find customers, generate sales, and carve out a place in the market.

In addition, sustainability is playing an increasingly influential role in shaping consumer choices. According to PostNord’s 2024 report, 8 out of 10 Nordic shoppers consider sustainability when making purchases. This creates space for newcomers with strong brand values, circular business models, or second-hand offerings, which are becoming more popular particularly in fashion.

This also presents strategic opportunities for established brands. The new entrants create a pipeline of potential partners, collaborators or acquisition targets. For incumbents, this is a chance to stay ahead of the curve by aligning early with brands that may become the next category leaders.  

For entrepreneurs, the lesson is that everything is still very much possible. While competition is strong, the path to growth remains open to those with a clear proposition answering real customer needs. Differentiation, specialization, and a willingness to build something that doesn’t look like everything else on the market will again prove to be key advantages.

Rather than signaling saturation the current trends reflect a dynamic market. New players continue to reshape what is possible, and the space for innovation remains open.

At Tembi, we track over 600,000 webshops across Europe, updating our database bi-weekly to gather historical data and monitor the development of each webshop.

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n commercial real estate, having the right insights can lead to valuable opportunities. Tembi's new report, "Netherlands Relocation Data & Predictions 2025," offers practical understanding and insights into upcoming shifts in the commercial real estate space.

Download report

Tembi’s AI-driven analytics blend market dynamics, employment patterns, and historical data to deliver accurate and reliable market forecasts.

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Find new tenants proactively with relocation predictions

Our analysis highlights 9,993 companies in the Netherlands likely to relocate during 2025, potentially affecting over 222,000 employees. Another 21,532 companies might also move offices within the next year, impacting nearly 700,000 employees.

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Understand how areas develop

Showing a clear understanding of local trends can enhance your credibility with clients. Our report details areas gaining or losing businesses, like Utrecht, Amsterdam-Duivendrecht, and Rotterdam. This information can help you deliver pitches that clearly match your clients' strategic interests.

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Make informed decisions with clear market insights

Download the report today to stay informed about relocation trends, helping you anticipate market changes, uncover new opportunities, and stay ahead in your field.

Get the full report: Netherlands Relocation Data & Predictions 2025

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Are you interested in getting more data and see how Tembi can you help you grow, talk to our sales team.

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