Competitive insights on last-mile delivery in Denmark

Delivery fees across the Nordics have followed clear seasonal patterns and strategic adjustments over the past two years. Drawing on data from over100,000 webshops in Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Norway between Q1 2024 and Q32025, we track how average consumer delivery prices (in EUR) have shifted.

This analysis zooms in on the Q4 holiday peak, highlights country-specific behaviours, and compares delivery methods in urban areas - parcel lockers, pickup points, and home delivery. The aim is to show how webshops shape their pricing strategies and how these evolve through the year.

Seasonal pricing patterns and Q4 fluctuations

Seasonality is a defining feature of delivery pricing in the Nordics. Q4, the peak holiday quarter, typically brings stable or higher fees rather than discounts. In late 2024, Black Friday and Christmas did not lead to cheaper delivery - instead, many webshops kept prices firm or lifted them slightly.

· Sweden: average home delivery rose from €7.60 in Q3 2024 to €8.00 in Q4, the annual peak.
· Denmark: small increases, such as parcel shop delivery at €5.89 in Q4 versus €5.83 inQ3.
· Finland: parcel shop fees jumped by around 5% in Q4 2024.
· Norway: parcel box delivery peaked during the holiday quarter.

The pattern suggests that in high-demand Q4, retailers prioritise covering fulfilment costs over cutting fees - even when running heavy sales campaigns.

This shifts in Q1, when prices correct downward. After the holiday rush, many webshops reduced or normalised fees:

• In Sweden, parcel box delivery fell from €5.26 in Q4 to €4.80 in Q1 2025.
• In Denmark, the small Q4 upticks were rolled back early in 2025.
• Norway saw a short-lived rise in home delivery(from €9.55 to €9.65 in Q1) before prices dropped sharply in Q2.
  ‍

This Q1 softness reflects the post-holiday slowdown in demand and renewed competition to attract consumers during a quieter season.
‍

‍

Q4 2024 stands out as a high point for delivery fees in several markets, corroborating that peak season surcharges and fewer free-shipping promos were in effect. In fact, during Black Week (Black Friday 2024), retailers across Noridcs reduced the prevalence of free shipping by 4% compared to 2023, opting instead to set spend thresholds or promote premium paid options (source: ingrid.com). In other words, fewer orders enjoyed “free delivery” in Q4 2024, as merchants nudged customers toward paid faster delivery or order bundling.This strategic move helped protect margins during the holiday boom – and consumers generally went along, paying for delivery when the value (speed, convenience) was clear (source: ingrid.com). The seasonal insight here is that peak demand doesn’t equal cheaper shipping; if anything, many webshops use the period to upsell premium delivery or maintain prices, rather than offer blanket free shipping.

Moving through 2025, the Q2 and Q3 2025 data show an interesting reset. By summer 2025, average delivery charges in many categories fell back to or below their levels from the previous holiday season. This sets the stage for how Q4 2025 might play out – which we’ll discuss in a moment.

Country-by-Country Insights

Each Nordic market shows distinct pricing dynamics, shaped by competition, consumer behaviour, and delivery costs.

Sweden

Swedish webshops consistently post the lowest delivery fees in the region.In early 2024, prices were modest - around €4.20 for locker delivery and €7.50 for home delivery. These rose steadily through the year, with parcel box and parcel shop deliveries more than 20% higher by Q3/Q4. Home delivery peaked at €8.00 in Q42024, reflecting inflationary pressures and webshop/carriers passing higher rates on to consumers.

In 2025, the trend reversed. By Q3 2025, parcel shop delivery had dropped from €6.57 in Q4 2024 to €5.37 (an 18% decline),while home delivery eased back to €7.59. This points to intensifying competition, with Swedish retailers willing to cut delivery prices quickly to gain an edge.

Denmark

Denmark’s delivery pricing remained stable through 2024, with parcel lockers and pickup points in the mid-€5 range and home delivery around €7.80–7.90. Even in Q4, increases were marginal- for example, parcel shop delivery at €5.89 in Q4 versus €5.83 in Q3.

The shift came in 2025. By Q3, parcel lockers averaged €5.00 and parcel shops €5.11 - 10–13% lower than the prior holiday season. Home delivery also dipped to €7.30 from €7.91 in Q4 2024. This gradual decline suggests Danish webshops began competing more actively on delivery price or carriers pressed the prices further down.

Finland

Finland remains the most expensive Nordic market for delivery - especially for home delivery. In 2024, Finnish shoppers paid €12–13 for home delivery, nearly double Sweden’s average. Out-of-home methods were also high at €7+. Prices climbed steadily through 2024, with parcel shops up 12% by Q4.

In 2025, home delivery crept even higher, peaking at €12.90 in Q2. But by Q3, parcel locker and shop fees had fallen sharply - down about 10% from Q2, back to early-2024 levels. Home delivery stabilised around€12.50.

Norway

Norway experienced the most pronounced swings. In 2024, home delivery peaked at €10.08 in Q2, while parcel lockers (€8.21) and parcel shops (€9.16) hit highs in Q3. Interestingly, Q4 home delivery was lower than earlier in the year at €9.55.

By 2025, Norwegian webshops had cut prices heavily, especially for out-of-home delivery. Parcel lockers fell from over €8in late 2024 to €6.64 by Q3 2025- a 20% year-on-year drop. Parcel shop delivery followed a similar pattern, down about €1.20 on average versus Q4 2024. Home delivery also eased slightly to €9.25 by Q3.

The widening price gap between home and pickup options suggests a deliberate push to shift volume to more cost-efficient methods. For carriers, Norway highlights how quickly competitive conditions can change - and the need to adjust pricing strategies in real time.

To summarize the country trends, Table 1 highlights how delivery fees in Q3 2025 compare to the last peak season (Q42024). Most markets saw notable declines in that period, especially for out-of-home deliveries:

‍

‍

Delivery Method Trends: Parcel Box vs. Parcel Shop vs. Home

Data clearly shows that out-of-home delivery is significantly cheaper for consumers in urban areas – a natural effect when carriers can deliver 5–10 times more parcels per driver compared with home delivery.

Parcel box (locker) delivery

· Cheapest option across all markets by 2025(~€5–6.5).
· Prices spiked in 2024 (e.g. Norway €6.6 → €8.3)but dropped back sharply in 2025.
· Volatility suggests retailers test price sensitivity, then reset as competition kicks in.

Parcel shop(pickup point) delivery

· Typically a few cents above lockers, but fell notably in 2025.
·  Norway: from ~€9 in 2024 to €7.2 by Q3 2025.
·  Pricing gap with home delivery widened, creating strong incentives for consumers to choose pickup.

Home delivery

· Premium service, consistently the most expensive.
· Held steady through 2024–25: ~€7.5 in SE/DK,~€9.3 in NO, ~€12.5 in FI.
· Only small price drops, with Sweden (-13% YoY)the exception.
·  Discounts remain rare and tied to high order values.

The bigger picture

Out-of-home delivery became cheaper in 2025, while home delivery kept its premium. This reflects a conscious decision: steer demand towards lockers and pickup points to cut last-mile costs and ease peak-season pressure. Black Week 2024 showed the effect in practice - locker usage rose by four percentage points and delivery times improved as shoppers embraced flexible collection (source: ingrid.com).

For logistics providers and retailers, aggressive pricing on out-of-home delivery seems to become a core lever: it nudges cost-conscious consumers, reduces operational strain, while keeping satisfaction high. But the gap has limits - home delivery still anchors convenience expectations and remains a profit lever. The real challenge is balance: keeping lockers and pickups highly attractive without eroding the value or accessibility of home delivery.

Collaboration between retailers and logistics providers is key here, ensuring service levels meet expectations as more customers choose out-of-home - seen clearly during Black Week, when lockers not only gained share but also delivered faster on average (source: ingrid.com).

Outlook forQ4 2025: What to Expect in the Peak Season

To keep the forecast transparent, we applied a simple model: for each country × delivery method, we took the Q4-over-Q3 seasonal change from 2024 and applied that ratio to Q3 2025 levels. Where 2025 trended lower than 2024, we also include a conservative midpoint between Q3 2025 and that baseline.

Regional forecast (Q4 2025)

· Parcel box(lockers): €5.6–6.0
· Parcel shop(pickup): €6.1–6.3
· Home delivery: €9.0–9.2

Seasonal lift from Q3 to Q4 looks modest. Home delivery remains the premium option, while lockers and parcel shops stay clearly cheaper.

By market

· Sweden: home ~€8.0 (flat vs last year); parcel shop ~€5.3 and lockers ~€5.0 (well below last year).
· Denmark: home ~€7.4; parcel shop ~€5.2; lockers ~€5.1 (all lower than last year).
· Finland: home ~€12.5 (still high); parcel shop ~€7.3; lockers ~€6.4 (both down year-on-year).
· Norway: home ~€9.25 (slightly below last year); parcel shop ~€7.1; lockers ~€6.7 (~20%down year-on-year).

‍Summary outlook for Q4 2025

Nordic delivery prices have eased through 2025 after peaking in late 2024, especially for out-of-home options (parcel box and parcel shop). Applying last year’s Q4-over-Q3 seasonality to current Q3 levels points to only small Q4 uplifts: lockers and pickups remain the low-cost choices, while home delivery stays premium and broadly flat.

Country patterns matter. Sweden and Denmark have lower 2025 bases and limited room for Q4 increases. Finland remains structurally high - especially on home delivery - so stability is more likely than hikes. Norway has corrected sharply this year, with retailers continuing to nudge volume toward cheaper lockers and pickups.

The underlying pricing strategies are clear:

· Continued shift to out-of-home delivery. Lower pricing here is deliberate - directing volume away from costly home delivery and easing last-mile strain.
· Home delivery as a premium anchor. Price cuts are modest; competition is about service quality (slots, ETAs, first-attempt success) rather than cents.
· Seasonal resets. After Christmas, prices ease in Q1—a cycle webshops use to stay competitive in slower months.

Finally, weigh this outlook against external factors that can quickly shift the picture: capacity constraints and consumer sentiment. If sentiment weakens, retailers may lean harder on thresholds and targeted incentives.

‍

For most companies, two questions matter when looking at the e-commerce market: which webshops will grow and how large they are today. These are not easy to answer. Financial accounts are published once a year and often with long delays. Website traffic tools vary in accuracy. Sales input can be useful, but it is not consistent across markets.

Tembi approaches the problem differently. We track over 800.000 webshops in 22 European markets, visiting them every two weeks, and we convert that activity into a clear view of current size and likely growth.

What the outputs are

From this data, we produce two measures.

• The size score (size estimation) shows how large a webshop is relative to others in the same market. It runs on a 0–100 scale and is built from multiple operating signals, not just a single proxy like traffic or revenue.
• The growth outlook (Growht prediction) indicates whether a webshop is likely to expand, remain stable, or decline in the months ahead. We classify this into five levels: Negative, Flat, Low, High and Very High.

Together, these outputs give a comparable and timely view of the market that has not been available before.

The data behind the model

What makes this possible is the breadth of signals we collect. Every webshop is assessed on seven main areas:

1. Export markets – selling into multiple countries is strongly linked to scale and resilience.
2. Delivery setup – the number and type of carriers and methods say a lot about maturity.
3. Technical add-ons – tools for reviews, marketing, or experimentation signal investment.
4. Infrastructure – the platform and payment systems in use, from lightweight to enterprise.
5. Financials and employees – a valuable anchor when available, though not the only input.
6. Traffic – used carefully as a directional trend.
7. Products – the number of SKUs, their development over time, and their categories.

It is the combination of these factors, updated every two weeks, that produces a reliable picture of both size and growth.

Why this matters

Older approaches depend on delayed filings, unstable traffic estimates, or anecdotal sales input. They describe the past, not the present. By contrast, Tembi provides a structured, repeatable model that updates with the market itself. A Danish fashion webshop and a Spanish electronics retailer can be measured on the same scale, and shifts in momentum can be detected months before they appear in official reports.

What this enables

• Sales teams can prioritise accounts that are growing.
• Category managers can see which product areas are moving up or down.
• Carriers and enablers can track portfolio risk and adjust before market shifts affect revenue.
• Corporate development can identify acquisition targets with proven momentum early.

This is not prediction for prediction’s sake. It is about replacing guesswork with evidence that is current, structured and comparable.

Tembi provides a way to see the market as it develops — which webshops are growing, how large they are, and where categories are shifting. It offers the clarity needed to make decisions with confidence, based on how the market is moving today.

See it in action

‍

Growth predictions and Size estimation are available on all markets Tembi has been active on for more then three months.

Knowing which webshops to focus on helps your business succeed. That’s why we've launched Tembi’s Size indication, a simple way to quickly understand how active and big (or small) any webshop is in the market compared to the largest online retailers.

What is the Size indication?

Tembi’s Size indications scores webshops from 1 to 100 points, dividing them into clear groups:

• Small: 0-24 points

• Medium: 25-49 points

• Large: 50-74 points

• Very Large: 75-100 points

This makes it easy to compare webshops and see where they stand compared to others.

How does it work?

The Size indication uses hundreds of data points per webshop to decide each webshop’s score, including:

• Size and variety of product offerings

• Investment in technology and infrastructure

• Amount of website traffic

• Types of delivery methods provided

These factors, and many more, provide a clear picture of how active and large a webshop is. Each webshop’s score is clearly explained, showing both positive and negative factors.  

Why the Size indication is useful

The Size indication makes market analysis simpler. You can quickly assess market size and find webshops that fit your ICP. When looking at thousands of prospects, Size indication allows you to sort all webshops, and see their size in relation to each other.

Combine Size indication with Growth Predictions

Tembi’s Size indication works hand-in-hand with our Growth Predictions feature. By combining these insights, you get a complete view of the market opportunity - clearly identifying which webshops are not only large and active but also likely to grow. This powerful combination helps you pinpoint the best opportunities for strategic action and growth.

Want to get started?

Log in to Tembi and check out the Size indication now. All Tembi clients have access to our Growth predictions and Size indication for free during July.

‍

In business, knowledge is power, but foresight is transformational. Until now, most market intelligence relies on delivered reactive insights, offering clarity on the past or present but limited visibility into the future. Today, Tembi changes that by launching a groundbreaking predictive feature for e-commerce: Growth Predictions.

Why predictions matter

Understanding past performance is essential, but knowing what's coming next is where you truly gain a competitive advantage. With Growth Predictions, Tembi analyses hundreds of critical factors across hundreds of thousands of webshops, giving you a clear view of each retailer’s potential growth over the next 3 to 6 months.

How does it work?

Our unique predictive model evaluates comprehensive data points, including:

• Financial trends

• Employee growth and changes

• Product portfolio developments

• Web traffic insights (powered by SimilarWeb)

• Technological investments

• Infrastructure reliability

• Delivery partnerships and methods

• Category-specific trends

At the heart of this model is our proprietary AI-powered data collection methodology. For several years, we've meticulously collected, structured, and continuously updated vast datasets. Our advanced machine-learning algorithms use this rich historical data to identify patterns, learn from past behaviours, and generate precise, data-backed predictions. This ensures that our Growth Predictions aren’t guesses - they're calculated insights driven by robust AI techniques.

We translate these complex signals into straightforward, actionable insights, predicting whether a webshop will experience high growth, stability, or potential decline.

Transparent insights for smarter decisions

Growth Predictions don't just give you a simple score. They explain precisely why we anticipate certain growth patterns. For example:

• Positive growth signals: Stable infrastructure, Product portfolio expansion, added delivery methods or partners.

• Negative growth signals: Limited product portfolio expansion, insufficient technological investments.

This transparency helps you quickly understand the underlying strengths or vulnerabilities of any webshop.

Transform your commercial strategies

If you’re responsible for partnerships, sales, or logistics, Growth Predictions become your secret weapon. Prioritise your efforts, target the right segments and customers, optimise your resources, and proactively manage your commercial relationships by focusing on webshops that have a higher likeability to succeed.  

First of its kind

No other e-commerce intelligence tool provides predictive growth insights at this depth. Using our unique dataset of retailers and product portfolios, we provide a comprehensive mapping of the e-commerce industry, helping companies plan strategically.

We update our dataset bi-weekly, ensuring teams can track prospects, provide insights and get a competitive advantage.  

Interested in knowing more, book a demo with one of our experts.

Growth predictions are available for free as an early release during July for all our clients.

‍

The retail industry is in the midst of profound transformation driven by two interconnected forces: the convergence of retail and e-commerce into a hybrid landscape, and the rapid integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI). These forces aren't just altering shopping habits - they're reshaping the entire retail value chain from manufacturing to fulfilment. McKinsey identifies these as key economic game-changers (putting aside broader geopolitical factors).

Two forces reshaping retail

1. The blended future of e-commerce and retail

E-commerce has evolved beyond a simple digital channel into three overlapping segments:

• Manufacturers going Direct-to-Consumer (DTC): Brands like Nike, Zara, and Dyson build direct customer relationships through digital storefronts and direct shipments.

• Pure-Play digital platforms: Born-digital platforms like Zalando and ASOS innovate with personalisation and logistics, with some even branching into physical flagship stores.

• Traditional retailers adopting digital: Giants like IKEA and Walmart are integrating physical and digital experiences seamlessly.

These segments are merging into a highly competitive ecosystem where agility and market intelligence are essential. This blending doesn't simplify competition - it intensifies it, demanding constant vigilance and adaptability.

2. AI-driven retail intelligence

AI has moved from futuristic concept to operational necessity. Retailers leverage AI for personalised recommendations, dynamic pricing, predictive inventory management, and customer service automation, enabling smarter, faster, and more profitable operations.

Additionally, the expansion of cloud computing and the explosion of available data provide new opportunities to understand market dynamics in real-time. Historically, analysing every shelf in Europe was unthinkable; today, online data combined with AI makes large-scale, real-time market analysis entirely feasible.

A strategic framework for AI-enabled retail

Staying ahead requires a structured approach. Recently, Shish Shridhar from our partner Microsoft shared a strategic framework leveraging real-time data, AI, and automation, highlighting essential levers to drive growth.

Customer-facing levers

Place – Sales channels: physical, digital, hybrid
Product – Assortment depth, availability
Value – Pricing strategy, perceived customer value
People – Customer service, store experience
Communication – Marketing, promotions, loyalty programmes

Operational levers ("The Triangle")

Systems – Technology infrastructure, analytics, automation
Logistics – Efficient supply chain, fulfilment methods, delivery
Suppliers – Vendor management, sourcing and COGS

How market intelligence creates a competitive advantage

At Tembi, we equip retailers and brands with large-scale market analytics derived from real-time data. We continuously track over 600,000 online retailers and 300 million products across Europe - among the largest datasets in the industry. By connecting this data with location specifics, company details, and AI-powered analytics, commercial teams gain clarity and confidence in decision-making, eliminating guesswork when it comes to understanding what drives growth.

As I see it, by unifying data across digital and physical touch points, market intelligence at scale enables smarter decisions in Product, Value, and Systems - helping businesses thrive in a hybrid, AI-first retail world.

Place

• Based on the product categories that you excel in - which markets are then optimal, and in which geographies would it be optimal to promote and sell your products.
• If you have or plan to set up physical stores how are they threatened and compared to online retailers, and how is the specific area you think about investing in evolving. This will show whether you can expect optimal levels for sales per store and store traffic.

Product

• Predict which product categories and brands to invest in, when you decide where to play - which product segments are you in with which brand and pricing strategies to drive market share and inventory turnover and hence sales growth.
• Understand the competition in the product categories and brands you are in and the strengths and strategies of the other players in the market.
Improve out-of stock-rate by finding out when products are sold over the year and if that differs in different geographies, and thereby make sure that availability is secured.

Value

• Understand the current (or seasonality-defined) pricing in the market to increase gross margin, right-in-time markdowns, and possibility for price skimming but get an actual X-ray about the real price development in the market.

Logistics

• When being present in the market, or especially entering a new one, you need to know how to make it successful. One of the important things to understand delivery market standards in different markets, e.g. OOH, home delivery, free shipping thresholds, delivery time etc. Some D2C try to negotiate a pan-European delivery contract without factoring ion the different market dynamics, or simply enter with the wrong expectations. This quickly becomes very expensive - e.g. if the customers are used to home deliveries and you go in the market wth parcel boxes, you would need to wait for that to be changed. Hence, very important to understand if you model fits to assure fulfilment accuracy.

Intelligence as the new retail imperative

Success in modern retail isn’t about choosing between physical and digital - it’s about blending them intelligently. In the era defined by AI and hybrid commerce, tools like Tembi provide retailers the crucial insights required to navigate complexity.

Whether you’re a DTC manufacturer, a digital-first retailer expanding your reach, or a traditional retailer enhancing your omnichannel strategy, winning demands strategic clarity grounded in data and real-time market intelligence.

‍

How a Last-Mile delivery commercial team used Tembi to reach online retailers when they were most likely to engage.

The context

A last mile delivery provider was looking to improve how and when they approached new merchant prospects. While they had a solid understanding of who they wanted to work with, outreach often happened too early (before the merchant was ready to switch) or too late (after a competitor had locked in a contract).

Without visibility into what was changing in the merchant’s checkout, reps had to rely on cold outreach, hoping to catch a merchant at the right moment. They needed a way to:

• Identify merchants that were actively reviewing or switching delivery providers
• Spot meaningful signals, like new product categories or delivery method updates
• Align outreach timing with actual changes in the merchant’s delivery setup

What they did with Tembi

Using Tembi Checkout Intelligence, the team started monitoring live changes in merchant checkout configurations. Tembi scrapers simulate checkout flows on thousands of webshops and detect:

• When a merchant adds or removes a delivery provider
• When delivery pricing or speed options are updated
• When a new product category is added (suggesting operational changes)
• When delivery method names or descriptions shift (e.g. switching from “standard” to “express”)

The team set up biweekly alerts on merchants that matched their ICP and showed recent changes in their delivery stack. This created a dynamic feed of prospects likely to be re-evaluating logistics partners, so an ideal timing for outreach.

The result

The team didn’t need to chase every webshop in a market. Instead, they focused on high-potential accounts showing signs of change. Over a six-week period, they:

• Reached out to 37 merchants flagged by stack change alerts
• Booked 22 first meetings, with 18 confirming they were actively reviewing delivery providers
• Landed 8 new partnerships directly tied to alerts showing recent removals of a competing provider

Timing their approach based on real signals helped them avoid wasted effort and start conversations when interest was highest.

Why it worked

✅ Actionable timing signals was more effective than cold outreach
✅ Changes tracked automatically from actual checkout flows
✅ Focus on merchants in motion who are more likely to convert
✅ Fewer dead ends - reps only acted when there was a reason to reach out

‍